South Sudan's Election Dilemma: Is the Nation Ready?

Summary

• South Sudan’s readiness for December elections is in doubt, with political consultations ongoing.
• The election is crucial, being the first since independence in 2011, and linked to a peace agreement.
• Concerns rise over a new security bill allowing arrests without warrants, threatening political space.
• Economic and humanitarian crises add pressure, with food insecurity and flooding risks escalating.

Juba, South Sudan – The prospects of South Sudan holding its first post-independence elections in December 2024 are increasingly uncertain, according to the United Nations’ top envoy to the troubled African nation, Nicolas Haysom. Addressing the UN Security Council on Wednesday, Haysom highlighted ongoing consultations among political players, which cast doubt on whether the election, scheduled for December 22, will indeed take place.

The National Elections Commission announced the December date last month, yet Haysom cautioned that this timeline cannot be seen as a definitive milestone without considering other critical factors. His remarks reflect broader concerns that South Sudan may not be ready to conduct free and fair elections, particularly in light of the country’s complex political and humanitarian landscape.

A Fragile Peace and Looming Election

The upcoming election holds significant importance for South Sudan, marking the first national vote since the country gained independence from Sudan in 2011. The election is intended to be the culmination of a peace agreement signed five years ago, aimed at ending a devastating civil war that claimed the lives of approximately 400,000 people. The conflict, largely driven by ethnic divisions, pitted forces loyal to President Salva Kiir against those supporting Vice President Riek Machar.

Despite the promise of the peace agreement, progress toward a stable and democratic South Sudan has been slow. Last December, Haysom outlined several conditions necessary for the elections to be credible and peaceful. By April, he reported that a “critical mass” of these key steps had not been implemented, a situation that remains unchanged according to his latest assessment.

On a positive note, the National Elections Commission has begun assessing the necessary infrastructure and facilities to create a conducive environment for the elections. Additionally, 29 political parties have been registered, indicating some level of political engagement. The UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan continues to support efforts to create an enabling environment for the elections, focusing on its mandate to protect civilians.

Controversial Security Bill Raises Alarms

However, significant challenges remain. One of the most pressing issues is a recently passed bill by South Sudan’s parliament, granting the National Security Service the power to make arrests without a warrant. This legislation has sparked widespread concern among civil society groups, political parties, the Commission on Human Rights, and the international community. Critics argue that the bill contradicts aspirations for an open civic and political space necessary for building a democratic society. They also contend that it is incompatible with South Sudan’s transitional constitution and its human rights obligations.

Haysom noted that President Kiir has the authority to refer the bill back to parliament for revision, a move that could signal a commitment to fostering an open political environment for the elections. Such a step, Haysom suggested, would be a significant opportunity to demonstrate a dedication to achieving the democratic space needed for South Sudan’s first national elections.

Economic and Humanitarian Storm

The political uncertainty surrounding the elections is compounded by severe economic and humanitarian crises. Haysom warned the Security Council that South Sudan is facing a “perfect storm” of challenges, including chronic food insecurity, the spillover of conflict from neighboring Sudan, and a rapidly deteriorating economy. The situation has been exacerbated by a ruptured oil pipeline, leading to a significant drop in revenue, and the potential for catastrophic flooding expected in September.

Edem Wosornu, the UN humanitarian office’s operations director, provided stark figures to the council, revealing that more than 9 million people, or 76% of South Sudan’s population, require humanitarian assistance. Additionally, 7.1 million people are acutely food insecure, an increase of 1.5 million from the previous year. Projections suggest that ongoing conflict and flooding could lead to pockets of famine between June 2024 and January 2025.

South Sudan’s economic woes are deepening, with most oil exports halted since February due to the ruptured pipeline. The South Sudanese pound has depreciated by over 70% in the first six months of 2024, making basic commodities unaffordable for many citizens. The annual inflation rate reached a staggering 97% in June, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.