Somalia Seeks Delay in Peacekeeper Withdrawal

In Summary

• Somalia's government is urging a delay in the withdrawal of African Union peacekeepers due to fears of a security vacuum as al-Shabaab militants gain strength.
• Somalia has requested to postpone the withdrawal of half the 4,000 troops scheduled to leave by the end of June, suggesting a revised timeline based on the readiness of Somali forces.
• The European Union and United States are reconsidering their long-term financial support for peacekeeping operations in Somalia, complicating the transition to a new force.
• Neighboring countries express concerns that a premature withdrawal could destabilize the region further, echoing fears similar to those seen in recent conflicts like Afghanistan.

DETAILS

Mogadishu,Somalia- Somalia faces a critical juncture as the planned withdrawal of African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) peacekeepers by the end of the year approaches, prompting the Somali government to seek a delay over fears of a security vacuum.

In a letter to the acting chair of the African Union Peace and Security Council, the Somali government requested a postponement in the withdrawal of 2,000 of the 4,000 troops set to depart by June's end, citing the need for a more gradual reduction based on the capabilities of Somali forces. This request follows a joint assessment with the AU, reviewed by the UN Security Council, which also suggested a conditions-based withdrawal to avoid creating a security vacuum.

The debate over the withdrawal timeline comes as international sponsors, primarily the European Union and the United States, express concerns about the sustainability and long-term financing of the peacekeeping mission. Both have been significant funders but are now considering reducing their financial contributions, which has influenced discussions about the mission's future scope and size.

Negotiations about the structure and mandate of a new force to replace ATMIS are ongoing, with significant differences in vision between Somalia and the AU. The potential for Ethiopia to withdraw some of its troops amidst these discussions adds another layer of complexity and risk to the regional security dynamics.

Amidst these strategic deliberations, Somalia’s neighbors, including Uganda and Kenya, which have contributed troops to ATMIS, have voiced their apprehensions. They argue that the Somali military, despite extensive training, might not yet be prepared to handle the security challenges on its own, drawing parallels with the rapid deterioration seen in Afghanistan following international troop withdrawals.

Somalia’s government maintains that its forces are capable of countering al-Shabaab with limited external support, pointing to security improvements in Mogadishu and other areas. However, the presence of approximately 450 U.S. troops and ongoing international military assistance, including drone strikes, underscore the continued reliance on foreign support to combat the militant threat.

As international and regional stakeholders prepare for the upcoming Peace and Security Council meeting to discuss Somalia's future, the decisions made will be crucial in shaping the country's ability to achieve sustainable peace and security while transitioning to greater self-reliance.