ASMARA, ERITREA-International police forces are on high alert as Eritrea's Independence Day approaches this Friday, anticipating potential violent clashes at events commemorating the 33rd anniversary of the country's independence from Ethiopia. With strict prohibitions on protests within Eritrea, many disgruntled Eritreans abroad may seize the opportunity to voice their dissent during these celebrations. Some countries have preemptively banned the festivities to prevent violence.
Eritrea's hard-won freedom followed a three-decade conflict, culminating in its independence from Ethiopia. However, the anniversary is bittersweet for many Eritreans, as the promised freedoms have yet to materialize.
President Isaias Afwerki has ruled the country for 33 years without holding a national election, and Eritrea remains the only nation without a constitution.
Political dissent and any associations outside the ruling People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) are strictly prohibited.
Since 2001, Eritrea has had no free press, following the closure of independent newspapers and the arrest of most editors and journalists. Hundreds of thousands of young Eritreans have fled the country, escaping indefinite military conscription that has made Eritrea one of the most militarized societies in the world.
From this diaspora, a new, more radical opposition has emerged. Frustrated with the fragmented exiled opposition groups, some disillusioned former government leaders, and the PFDJ, they formed the militant youth group Brigade Ni’hamedu two years ago. Their battlegrounds are pro-government national anniversaries and festivals organized by embassies and pro-government communities.
The Brigade Ni’hamedu, also known as the "Blue Revolution," insists that pro-government events should not be allowed to take place. Over the past year, countries such as Canada, Germany, Israel, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK, and the US have witnessed violent confrontations at these gatherings. The two rival groups have used stones, sticks, and even knives in their clashes. In Tel Aviv, tensions escalated into tit-for-tat attacks, resulting in the death of a Blue Revolution activist and serious injury to a pro-government supporter.
In London, police recently released photos of Eritreans wanted for their involvement in an attack in December, during which they stormed a pro-government event in Camberwell, injuring several officers. "The level of violence used against officers, who were there to keep the public safe and protect people in a theatre, is some of the worst I have seen," said a detective investigating the incident.
The Blue Revolution's actions have had some impact, with Swiss authorities refusing permission for this year’s national day celebrations. Eritrea's embassy in Switzerland expressed outrage, accusing authorities of appeasing "violent thugs." The Dutch city of Rijswijk has also banned Independence Day gatherings.
Robel Asmelash, chairman of Brigade Ni’hamedu’s UK chapter, acknowledged that things initially got out of hand but said the group has since been working to manage protests responsibly. "Now in all countries, leaders of Brigade Ni’hamedu are providing awareness about protest laws. In coordination with law enforcement forces, we shall continue our resistance," he stated.
The ruling PFDJ has also mobilized a youth wing in the diaspora, the Young People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (YPFDJ), created in 2005 to counteract opposition narratives. Some YPFDJ recruits have even participated in military training in Eritrea, though they can leave, unlike conscripts born in Eritrea.
President Isaias Afwerki introduced a new system of governance in 2017, known as the “Four Defiance Fronts.” The Fourth Front, or 4G, is organized by Eritrean embassies and YPFDJ branches abroad. Daniel Teklai, an Eritrean nationalist based in California, explains that the diaspora is seen as an "economic zone" and emphasizes the patriotic contributions of Eritreans abroad, who send remittances to support their homeland.
During the recent two-year war in Tigray, many Eritreans, regardless of political views, rallied behind the government, leading to a surge in the popularity of national holidays. However, Blue Revolution supporters, many of whom fled conscription, opposed Eritrea’s involvement in the war. "In response to this surge in national unity, a radical fringe of the opposition resorted to violence," Teklai said, denying that the YPFDJ engaged in any counter-violence.
As the co-founder and chairman of One Nation, an organization advocating for democratic change in Eritrea, Teklai believes in upholding law and order. "The solution is not to surrender to these tactics. Law and order must prevail. Those who break the law by committing these crimes must be held accountable for their actions."
As Eritrea’s Independence Day approaches, the global community watches closely, hoping for peaceful commemorations amidst the tensions.
