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Fiscal balance captures the relationship between government expenditure, domestic revenue capacity, and external financing conditions. Unlike output growth, which reflects expansion in economic activity, fiscal outcomes reveal how that activity is financed and the structural strength of revenue systems.
According to the International Monetary Fund’s 2026 estimates, the global economy has an average fiscal deficit of around -5% of GDP, with Sub-Saharan Africa broadly in a similar range. In this context, economies that appear close to fiscal balance often do so for structurally distinct reasons rather than due to uniform fiscal strength.
In some cases, balance reflects narrow revenue systems and constrained tax capacity. In others, it reflects commodity-linked inflows that temporarily stabilize fiscal accounts or expenditure compression in environments with limited fiscal space. This makes fiscal balance a structural outcome rather than a standalone indicator of economic health.
10. Seychelles
Seychelles records a fiscal deficit of -1.7% of GDP within a small, tourism-dependent economy of roughly $2–3 billion. Tourism dominates services output, making fiscal performance highly sensitive to global travel demand cycles and seasonal fluctuations.
Import dependence significantly shapes fiscal dynamics, as a large share of domestic consumption is externally sourced. This creates persistent pressure on expenditure even during periods of strong tourism inflows, as foreign exchange earnings do not fully offset import-related outflows.
Seychelles’ public debt, which has generally ranged between the mid-50s and low-60s of GDP in recent years after previously exceeding 70% during periods of fiscal stress, continues to shape the country’s fiscal flexibility in a small, tourism-dependent economy. The fiscal position, therefore, reflects an externally exposed service economy where revenue and expenditure cycles move closely with global tourism conditions.
9. Liberia
Liberia’s fiscal deficit of -1.7% of GDP reflects a narrow revenue base within a low-income, resource-dependent economy of about $5.64 billion. Economic activity is concentrated in mining and agriculture, particularly iron ore and rubber exports.
Tax capacity remains structurally limited due to a large informal sector and low industrial diversification. As a result, fiscal operations are partially supported by external concessional financing, which plays a stabilizing role in budget execution.
Unlike more diversified economies in the region, Liberia’s fiscal structure is shaped more by limited domestic revenue extraction capacity than by spending expansion.
8. Cameroon
Cameroon records a fiscal deficit of -1.5% of GDP within a diversified economy exceeding $60 billion in GDP. Oil, agriculture, manufacturing, and services collectively contribute to output, reducing reliance on a single revenue source.
However, fiscal outcomes are shaped by sustained public investment in infrastructure and development projects, which account for a significant share of expenditure. Oil revenues provide partial stabilization but are insufficient to fully offset capital spending requirements.
Debt levels remain moderate at around 40–50% of GDP, allowing continued fiscal expansion. The fiscal position reflects an economy balancing resource revenues with long-term development spending commitments.
7. Gambia
The Gambia records a fiscal deficit of -1.2% of GDP within a small economy of approximately $2.5 billion. Economic activity is concentrated in tourism, remittances, and basic services, which generate external inflows but limited tax depth.
Import dependence remains structurally high, placing additional pressure on fiscal accounts through sustained external expenditure requirements. The limited scale of domestic production further constrains revenue diversification.
The fiscal position reflects structural limitations tied to economic size and sectoral concentration rather than cyclical imbalance.
6. Cabo Verde
Cabo Verde’s fiscal deficit of -1.1% of GDP reflects a tourism-driven service economy of roughly $2.7 billion. Tourism contributes around a quarter of GDP, making fiscal performance closely tied to external demand conditions.
High import dependence and historically elevated public debt levels previously near or above 100% of GDP continue to constrain fiscal space. Even when tourism inflows strengthen, structural import costs and debt servicing limit fiscal flexibility.
The fiscal outcome reflects the interaction between externally driven service revenues and persistent structural liabilities.
5. Somalia
Somalia records a fiscal deficit of -0.6% of GDP within an economy still undergoing institutional reconstruction. With GDP estimated at around $14 billion, domestic revenue generation remains extremely limited, with tax-to-GDP ratios among the lowest globally.
Public expenditure is heavily supported by external grants and donor inflows, which constitute a significant share of government financing. Fiscal outcomes are therefore closely linked to external support structures rather than internal revenue capacity.
The fiscal position reflects institutional and administrative constraints on revenue collection rather than cyclical macroeconomic pressures.
4. São Tomé and Príncipe
São Tomé and Príncipe recorded a fiscal deficit of -0.5% of GDP within a small island economy with a GDP of around $1.16 billion. Economic activity is heavily dependent on external concessional financing and donor support, which sustains public expenditure.
Public debt remains structurally elevated relative to output, limiting fiscal maneuverability and reinforcing reliance on external financing channels.
The fiscal position reflects structural scale constraints and external dependence rather than internally generated fiscal stability.
3. Chad
Chad records a fiscal deficit of -0.4% of GDP within an oil-dependent economy of approximately $25 billion. Fiscal performance is closely tied to crude oil production and global price movements.
Oil revenues account for a dominant share of government income, making fiscal outcomes highly sensitive to commodity cycles. Debt levels remain moderate following restructuring, but fiscal stability continues to depend on energy market conditions.
The fiscal structure reflects a narrow commodity base where stability is externally determined through global oil pricing dynamics.
2. Mauritania
Mauritania records a near-balanced fiscal position of -0.1% of GDP at $14. 35 billion economy anchored in iron ore mining and fisheries.
These export sectors provide relatively stable foreign exchange inflows, which support fiscal equilibrium despite underlying exposure to commodity cycles. The narrowness of the export base limits diversification, but revenue predictability is comparatively stronger than in more volatile commodity economies.
The fiscal position reflects structural dependence on a small set of export industries that collectively stabilize public finances.
1. Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe records a fiscal surplus of +0.4% of GDP, the only surplus position in this ranking. With a GDP of $56.71 billion, fiscal outcomes are shaped primarily by expenditure compression rather than revenue expansion.
A large informal economy, estimated at over 60% of total activity, limits formal tax base expansion. As a result, fiscal consolidation is achieved through constrained public spending rather than broad-based revenue growth.
The surplus, therefore, reflects limited fiscal space and spending restraint rather than surplus-driven fiscal strength.
